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Recession Monitor
Recession Monitor
Smoothed recession probability, modeled from a mix of nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, income, and sales data (Chauvet-Piger model).
Current Recession Probability
0.5%
Low Risk · Unchanged vs prior month
Live: Last 24 Months
Source: FRED (RECPROUSM156N)Jun 2024Range: 0.10% – 1.16%May 2026
Historical: Full Available Range
Source: FRED (RECPROUSM156N)Jun 1967Range: 0.00% – 100.00%May 2026
Key Takeaways
- •This model blends multiple monthly indicators — payrolls, income, sales, and production — to estimate the probability the economy is currently in a recession.
- •Readings above roughly 50% have historically aligned closely with NBER-designated recession periods.
- •This is a probabilistic model, not a forecast — it reflects current conditions rather than predicting future turning points.
AI EXPLANATION
AI-generated analysis of the current recession risk picture and the indicators driving it will appear here once the AI summary integration is connected.